Seth Godin is an interesting character. He’s involved in many things, but is best known for introducing the concept of permission marketing, in which marketers obtain permission before advancing to the next step – i.e., permission to send e-mail. This is the opposite of ‘interruption marketing’ such as TV commercials)
A recent post caught my attention. Excerpts below.
Very often, we’re challenged to make decisions with too little information. Sometimes, there’s no information–merely noise. The question is: how will you decide?
We talked for an hour [over a difficult pricing decision] and then did the only intelligent thing–we flipped a coin. To be sure we had it right, we double checked and flipped two out of three. The only mistake we made was wasting an hour pontificating and arguing before we flipped.
This is also the way we should settle closely contested elections. We know the error rate for counting ballots is some percentage–say it’s .01%. Whenever the margin is less than the error rate, we should flip. Not waste months and millions in court, we should insist on the flip. Anything else is a waste of time and money.
Or consider the dilemma of the lucky high school student with five colleges to choose from. Once you’ve narrowed it down and all you’re left with is a hunch, once there are no data points to give you a rational way to pick, stop worrying. Stop analyzing. Don’t waste $4,000 and a month of anxiety visiting the schools again.
When there isn’t enough data, when there can’t be enough data, insist on the flip.
By refusing to lie to yourself, by not telling yourself a fable to make the decision easier, you’ll understand quite clearly when you’re winging it.
Once you embrace this idea, it’s a lot easier not to second guess your decisions.
I like this idea. It seems reasonable. When you truly have no legitimate way to make a decision, a coin toss is as good as any other method. I wonder whether any politician would agree to this deal prior to an election.
The point? Is this idea viable in the trading world? I understand that each trader thinks he/she has the edge to make the right decision. But aren’t there going to be situations in which the trader really has no idea which is the better path?
The decision may be very important such as whether to enter the trade or pass. However, it could also be a bit less important, such as deciding whether to give up $0.05 in an attempt to get an order filled.
For anyone who likes this idea for trade decisions, the obvious drawback is becoming dependent on this method for making the difficult choices. I would never suggest it as something to use with any frequency, but if you buy Seth’s premise, then a coin toss is a reasonable method for coming to a decision.