Tag Archives | Mark Hulbert

Why Trade Options. Part I

A recent article by Mark Hulbert (MarketWatch) attracted my attention for two reasons. One, it focused on Richard Russell, “the granddaddy of the investment advisory industry, having continuously published his Dow Theory Letters advisory service since 1958.” Two, it brings into focus the advisability of owning a large stock portfolio – the main investment method since the end of WWII.

Edited (for brevity) excerpts from Hulbert’s article:

Richard Russell made a remarkable confession earlier this week. He said that he finds the financial markets to be so inscrutable that trying to time them is close to futile. He decided to invest a good chunk of the accounts he manages in a mutual fund that has a static allocation to several uncorrelated asset classes.
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Options: How not to use them

Mark Hulbert, at MarketWatch is primarily known for his ratings of advisory newsletters.  But he also  writes about some very interesting stuff.  Here's an example from yesterday.  The story is about a completely irresponsible use of options – by someone who should know better.

Indented text is Hulbert's (slightly edited) words

"Michael Murphy is the editor of an investment advisory service
called New World Investor. Among several portfolios that he
reports on in his service is a college fund that he created for his
seven-year old daughter. He typically allocates 100% of this portfolio
at any given time to just one security."

There is no question that this is a kill or be killed investment approach.  I've never heard of anyone using such a strategy for a college savings program.  I'm assuming he is sufficiently wealthy that this is not truly the only assets available for his daughter's future.

"last Wednesday night, Murphy went even further out the “go the
broke” spectrum: He invested his daughter’s entire college fund in just
one option—the Jan. $10 calls on Arena Pharmaceuticals"


"The call options
Murphy bought are now worth about 90% less than where they stood last
Wednesday evening.

The reason for the big drop: A Food & Drug Administration advisory
committee voted 9-to-5 against recommending that the FDA approve a new
drug that Arena is trying to develop.

Murphy had been betting that FDA
approval would be forthcoming, and had timed his purchase of Arena’s
call options to occur on the eve of the FDA announcement."

The fact that anyone would do any of the following, disqualifies him as an investment advisor – at least from my perspective.  And Murphy did all of them:

  • Invest an entire portfolio on a single investment
  • Buy call options – in a size trade – as an investment
  • Buy options when they are priced at their very highest – and that occurs just prior to a known news release
  • Admit to anyone that you made this trade – if you want to continue to have an audience for your newsletter.  Even if the investment result had been spectacular, it's not the type of gamble that you want to advertise.

"There are plenty of investment lessons to draw from Murphy’s experience,
and perhaps the most important is how one misstep can more than negate
many brilliant investment decisions."

Why would Murphy pursue such a high-risk strategy—one that some might
even characterize as reckless? I have no idea, but I do know that, for
many people in the investment arena, the excitement surrounding such
strategies is what makes them irresistible.

Just as some people go to a casino for the thrills of
possibly winning big, while simultaneously recognizing that they
probably will lose, some investors choose high-risk advisers for the
same reasons. And that’s entirely OK.

The problem [with investing this way] arises when you kid yourself into thinking that your
motivation is wealth building, when it is thrill seeking. You are likely to allocate more than just your play money to a
particular adviser or strategy—with all-too-predictable dangerous
outcomes, when this or that trade doesn’t work out"

Hulbert offers a very good analysis of the thrill-seeking (non) investor.  if you are serious about trading or about making money, don't be that thrill seeker when using your 'regular' trading account(s).


Coming soon, a major announcement from Options for Rookie's.  It's too soon for details; still in the planning stages.

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