It's expiration week once again and, as far as my portfolio is concerned, I'm not worried about violent market movement. I've covered essentially all my short February spreads and am happy not to have to be at risk from negative gamma (for the moment).
The market has been going nowhere, implied options volatility has been declining, and iron condor trading is profitable. That's all good news. And yet I'm concerned that things are about to change. I have no specific reasons for feeling that way and I hope my fears fade away. But I do fear the immediate future.
GM is trying to reach agreements with its bondholders and employees in an attempt to avoid bankruptcy. Another potential ponzi scheme may be uncovered (Google: Stanford bank, ponzi) if you are unaware of this situation) as the SEC once again takes forever to investigate. The banking situation is unresolved. The stimulus package has been passed and we all wait to see if it will have positive results – before it's too late. Treasury Secretary Geithner must provide details of his plan: will the market be patient and wait for the plan to be revealed? And will it be pleased with the news?
There is so much bad news pending that I'm thinking that the best thing to do may be to ignore it. But, I cannot. I'm afraid. yet I continue to go about my business of buying iron condors – making an effort to add a few more every day.
Is everyone else cool with what's going on? Do we have reason to be optimistic that all will be well soon?