Tag Archives | standard deviation

Legging into an iron condor: A Good Idea?

Mark,

Can you please provide some in depth info on what would the preferable steps to leg into an IC – by spread – would be?

Example. if I open the put side today and next week index moves higher I sell the call side, that's great. But what if next week index moves lower? Roll-down the puts? Take losses and wait for another opportunity? Sell the calls at current prices?

My second question is: from your experience, would an IC constructed around 1 standard deviation OTM be really ~68% probability of keeping all the premium (given we do not make adjustments, in plain theory)? Thanks.

Dmitry

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In depth discussions are not always possible.  That's the stuff of which lessons and book chapters are made.  However, I'll offer the major points in enough detail, that it should satisfy your needs.

As it turns out, you do not need a lot of information about legging into iron condor trades. 

 

Legging into iron condors

1) Here are the major points – everything else on this topic is far less meaningful.

I do not like the idea of legging into iron condor trades by selling puts first.  It simply doesn't work as well as it should – when considering the risk involved. I know that's not good news for the trader who usually has a bullish bias, but there are good reasons.

When the market rallies, IV tends to shrink.  When IV shrinks, the value of the call spread that you are planning to sell also shrinks.  By that I mean it increases in value by less than you anticipate.  Often much less because it is an OTM spread.  I'm assuming that the iron condor trader is not looking to sell options that are CTM (close to the money).

It takes a significant upward move for that OTM call spread to increase in value by enough to compensate the trader for taking the leg. If you do sell the put spread first, and the market cooperates, it's often better to buy back that put spread, take the profit, and forget about getting a little better price on the call spread.

It's different with calls. If you correctly (i.e., you are correctly short-term bearish) sell the call spread first, then you have the opposite effect.  If the market declines, the put spread widens faster than expected and you have an iron condor trade at a good price.

Thus, unless bearish, I suggest not legging into iron condor trades.

Managing the single leg

2) If you don't get an opportunity to sell the second leg of the iron condor, I suggest forgetting about it and managing risk for the one credit spread that you did sell. 

Let me point out something that seems 'obvious,' but may not be obvious to everyone.  More than that, a significant number of traders may have never considered this simple idea: Once you own the full iron condor position, my experience tells me that it is far more efficient to forget that it is an iron condor and manage risk as if it were two separate trades:  one call spread and one put spread.

Thus, I recommend trading the situation described above as a put spread.  The fact that you did not collect any option premium by selling the call spread no longer matters. 

[If you had sold the call spread, and the market declines, the only important consideration is knowing when to buy back that call spread by paying a small price .  Waiting for it to expire worthless is far too risky.  Sure, it expires most of the time, but on those occasions when you get the big bounce (and that's what you (Dmitry) are in the market to find, isn't it?) there is no point in taking a good-sized loss on the call spread when it could have been covered by paying $0.20 – or another low price that suits you.

That's why I suggest managing the put spread as you would normally manage such a spread.  I understand that you are primarily a stock trader and have not traded a bunch of these, but there is no single best way to manage the risk.  My advice is DO NOT allow the fact that the call spread was not sold influence your decisions.

Yes, you can roll it down; yes you may be uncomfortable with the trade and exit at a loss.  Yes you may sell a call spread now – but that is my least favorite adjustment method and I strongly recommend that you not do that.  I base that on your bullish personality, and for you, losing money in a rising market would make you very unhappy.  Much more so than losing in a falling market.  These pshychological factors may not be a legitimate of scientific trading, however I truly believe that a successful trader does not place him/herself in a situation that can result is a very unhappy outcome.  My strong guess is that if you were to lose a given sum, you would be far unahppier losing on the upsdie than the downside.

Standard Deviation

No.  The chances of keeping the entire premium are nowhere near that 68%.

If you sell an option that is one standard deviation (SD) OTM, then yes, it will be out of the money approximately 68% of the time when expiration arrives.  But don't ignore the fact that it may be ITM far earlier than expiration (and then finish OTM), and you would probably elect to adjust or exit, rather than clsoe your eyes and wait for expiration.

More importantly, you are selling a call and a put.  The probability that the put finishes OTM is that 68%.  The probability that the calls finishes OTM is also 68%.  However, you have both positions and the probability of finishing ITM is 32% for either option.  these probabilities are additive. 

Conclusion:  The probability that either the put or call will finish ITM is ~64% and the chance that the iron condor will expire worthless is only 34%.  That is nothing near the 68% that you mentioned.

It gets worse.  If you decide to determine (see yesterday's blog post) the probability that the underlying stock or index will move to touch either the put or call strike price during the lifetime of the options, you will discover that the probability of touching is much higher than the probability of finishing ITM.  Assuming you would make an adjustment, the probability of keeping the entire sum is now far less than 34%

Iron condors are riskier than they may appear at first. That's why risk management is so important.

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Implied Volatility and Standard Deviation

Hi Mark, I have a few questions i hope you can answer.

1. Isn't holding a naked long call (as a result of locking in a profit or plain buying outright call) in general a bad idea? Reason I think so is because of the nature of IV: it mostly falls when the underlying is rising. So you have short theta and a big long vega moving against you.

And holding a naked put seems logical and natural.

2. Can IV be really considered as a Standard Deviation for a stock price? Same reasons to ask – why would a stock probability to be at a certain price range shrink just because the market moved higher? Why would it widen in case of a fall?

D.

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1.You are correct.  A rising stock price usually means that IV is falling.  Thus, any gains resulting from positive delta are diminished by losses from declining vega. Most novice call buyers miss that point.

You believe that it feels 'natural' to be short the put option and collect time decay. I also prefer to be short options (as a spread, never a naked option) because of time decay. However, I don't see anything 'natural' about being exposed to huge losses by selling naked options.  There is  nothing natural about that. [In further correspondence, you admit to having a big appetite for risk – and under those circumstances, selling options would feel natural].  Hedging that risk feels more natural to me – and that means we can each participate in the options world, trading in a way that feels comfortable.

However, the majority of individual investors – especially rookies – find that owning long calls feels natural: Limited losses and large gains are possible. That combination appeals to those who don't understand how difficult it is to make money consistently when buying options.  The chances of winning are not good when the stock must not only move your way, but must do so quickly. 

More experienced traders believe it makes sense to sell option premium, rather than own it.  Please understand: that is not a blanket statement.  There are many good reasons (hedging risk is primary) for owning options, but in my opinion, speculating on market direction is not one of them.

The problem with holding a naked (short) put option is that profit potential is limited and potential losses can be very large.  In addition, when the stock falls and you are losing money because of delta – IV is increasing and the negative vega is going to increase those losses. Although positive theta helps reduce losses – the effects of theta are often less than those from vega and delta.

Even though long calls and short puts are both bullish plays, they really serve different purposes.  Traders who want to own calls are playing for a significant move higher, while put sellers can be happy if the stock doesn't fall.  Put sellers have a much greater chance to earn a profit, but that profit is limited.  Selling puts is not for the trader who is looking for a big move or who wants to own insurance that protects a portfolio.

2. Standard deviation is a number calculated from data – and one of the pieces of data required is an estimate of the future volatility of the stock.

Yes, it appears that a rising market results in a smaller value for the standard deviation move, but in reality, SD decreases because the marketplace (and that is the summary of the opinions of all participants – the people who determine option prices) estimates (as determined by the prices and IV of options) that future volatility will be less than it is now.  You are not forced to accept that.  You may use any volatility number that suits to calculate a standard deviation move.

If you argue that it doesn't make sense for a mathematical calculation to depend on human emotions and decisions, I cannot disagree.  However, to calculate a standard deviation, it just makes sense to use the best available estimate for future volatility. Most traders accept current IV as that 'best' estimate.  That does not make it the best, it's just a consensus opinion.

If you prefer to use your own estimate to calculate a one standard deviation move, you can do that – as long as you have some reason to believe that your estimate is reasonable.

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